Schroder's Win: By The Numbers

Nov 20, 2017

Republican and former state representative John Schroder has been elected Louisiana Treasurer, with less than 13 percent of all registered voters actually participating. Political analyst John Couvillon says that clearly affected Schroder’s margin of victory.

"Turnout patterns statewide contributed to the race being a bit less of a blowout than was normally thought to be the case in a race like this," says the pollster and political data analyst.

Schroder defeated Democrat Derrick Edwards 56 to 44 percent, as compared to Republican John Kennedy beating Democrat Foster Campbell 61 to 39 percent in last year's U.S. Senate race.

Couvillon says the New Orleans mayoral election played a sizable part in the statewide election's results.

"New Orleans, which normally is about 8 percent of the statewide vote, actually cast a record 22 percent," Couvillon says. "Derrick Edwards carried Orleans with 80 percent."

Edwards carried seven other parishes, as well.

In addition, Couvillon says he found there was a change from the typical voting patterns based on race.

"In the remaining 63 parishes, black turnout was up two percent. Turnout in predominately white precincts was up four percent in Orleans Parish, but down 16 percent in the other 63 parishes," he explains. "Those factors made the race slightly closer than it would normally have been expected to be."

Couvillon cautions against reading too much into this analysis, especially when it comes to future election predictions.

"The turnout was so low, that when you're talking turnout approaching 10 percent, the slightest changes in anything can have an oversized impact."